A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
